LONDON: Monday, Russia informed the United States that US efforts to inflict a “strategic defeat” on Moscow in Ukraine could result in the expiration of the last pillar of bilateral nuclear arms control without a replacement.
The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) of 2011 has partially limited both Russia’s and the United States’ nuclear arsenals, which were extended until 2026 in 2021.
Although Washington has stated that it wants to reach a follow-on agreement with Russia, it is unclear what will happen after February 4, 2026.
According to Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, who was questioned by the RIA state news agency as to whether Moscow could anticipate the absence of a nuclear arms control treaty after 2026, ” This is a very real possibility.”
According to Ryabkov, Russia’s top arms control diplomat, the United States had, in recent years, ignored Russia’s interests and deconstructed the majority of the arms control architecture.
Ryabkov told RIA that “New START may well fall victim to this.” We are prepared for such a circumstance.”
His remarks serve as a warning to Washington that its continued military support for Ukraine could jeopardize the last significant bilateral arms control treaty with Russia that was signed after the Cold War.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, the United States has provided the nation with security assistance worth more than $27 billion, including over 1 million 155-millimeter artillery rounds, 8,500 Javelin anti-tank missile systems, and over 1,600 Stinger anti-aircraft rocket systems.
Ryabkov stated, “The US line of inflicting strategic defeat on Russia has held the whole situation in the sphere of security, including arms control, hostage.”
“We will use every tool and strategy at our disposal to resist this in the strongest possible way.”
Nuclear controls
In November 2022, talks between the US and Russia about restarting inspections under the New START treaty were called off at the last minute. A date for new talks has not been agreed upon by the parties.
Despite being restricted by a maze of arms control agreements during the Cold War, Russia and the United States still collectively possess approximately 90 percent of the world’s nuclear warheads.
In its Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) for 2022, the United States stated that Russia and China were expanding and modernizing their nuclear forces and that Washington would pursue an arms control strategy to prevent costly arms races.
Both sides were restricted by the New START Treaty to 1,550 warheads on deployed heavy bombers, submarine ballistic missiles, and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). By 2018, both sides had reached the central limits.
According to the US National Public Radio, “Expiration of the Treaty without a follow-on agreement would leave Russia free to expand strategic nuclear forces that are currently constrained, as well as novel intercontinental-range and regional systems that are not currently limited by the Treaty.”
“Russia is pursuing a number of novel nuclear-capable systems designed to put the US homeland or its Allies and partners in danger, some of which are also not accountable under New START,” the statement reads.
