BEIJING: Despite the fact that rising infections further strained the health system and wreaked havoc on the economy, Chinese people, who had been cut off from the rest of the world for three years due to COVID-19 restrictions, flocked to travel destinations on Tuesday in anticipation of the borders reopening.
Zero-resilience measures — from covered boundaries to visit lockdowns — have battered China’s economy since mid 2020, when the episode hit the country of 1.4 billion individuals.
The virus is now spreading throughout the country largely unchecked as a result of President XI Jinping’s policy change this month.
However, as of Monday, official statistics revealed only one COVID death, raising questions among health professionals and residents regarding the government’s data. The numbers don’t match what happened in much smaller countries when they opened again.
According to doctors, hospitals are overwhelmed by five to six times the usual number of patients, the majority of whom are elderly. Experts in international health estimations anticipate at least one million COVID deaths in China next year and millions of infections per day.
However, authorities are determined to eliminate their remaining zero-COVID policies.
The National Health Commission announced late on Monday that China will stop requiring inbound travelers to enter quarantine on January 8, a significant step toward easing border restrictions that was applauded by Asian stock markets on Tuesday.
AmCham China Chairman Colm Rafferty said of the planned lifting of quarantine restrictions, “It finally feels like China has turned the corner.”
According to data from the travel platform Ctrip, searches for popular cross-border destinations had increased tenfold within a half-hour of the news. Ctrip stated that Macau, Hong Kong, Japan, Thailand, and South Korea were the most sought-after.
According to data from Qunar, a different platform, searches for international flights increased sevenfold within 15 minutes of the announcement, with Thailand, Japan, and South Korea at the top of the list.
The health authority stated that COVID’s current top-level category, Category A, will be downgraded to the less stringent Category B starting on January 8 because it has become less virulent.
As a result of the change, authorities will no longer be required to isolate regions and quarantine patients and their close contacts.
However, despite the excitement of slowly returning to pre-COVID ways of life, there was growing pressure on China’s healthcare system. Doctors said that many hospitals were overcrowded, and funeral parlor workers said that more people wanted their services.
According to state media, doctors and nurses have been asked to work while sick, and retired medical professionals in rural communities have been rehired to assist. Anti-fever medications have been difficult to come by in some cities.
“Take a look at the funeral homes in a variety of cities. “I heard that we have to wait three to five days for cremation here,” a social media user in the eastern province of Shandong complained.
Near-term pain
Even though the world’s second-largest economy is expected to make a big comeback later this year, it will have a rough ride in the coming weeks and months as more and more workers get sick.
In recent days, a lot of shops in Shanghai, Beijing, and other places had to close because employees couldn’t get to work. Some factories have already put many of their employees on leave for the Lunar New Year holidays in late January.
In a note, analysts at JPMorgan said, “The concern of a temporary supply chain distortion remains as the labor force is impacted by infections.” They added that their tracking of subway traffic in 29 Chinese cities showed that many people were restricting their movement as the virus spreads.
Industrial profits fell 3.6% in January-November from a year earlier, compared to a 3.0% drop in January-October, according to data on Tuesday. This was due to the impact of the anti-virus restrictions that were in place last month, including in major manufacturing regions.
The $17 trillion economy benefits from the lifting of travel restrictions, but there are important caveats.
Dan Wang, chief economist at Hang Seng Bank China, stated, “International travel… will likely surge, but it may take many more months before volumes return to the level before the pandemic.”
“COVID continues to spread throughout the majority of China, significantly disrupting the regular work schedule. The sudden spike in demand will outpace the recovery in supply, resulting in a significant loss of productivity and inflationary pressures in the coming months.”
