ISLAMABAD As the heads of government conference of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) approaches, New Delhi finds itself in a diplomatic bind: should Prime Minister Narendra Modi travel to Islamabad for the summit
India is playing its cards close to the vest, creating a guessing game that has left analysts and onlookers on both sides of the split wondering, “Will he or won’t he?” despite diplomatic sources suggesting the likelihood of Mr. Modi crossing the border is remote.
At the weekly media conference on Thursday, Mumtaz Zahra Baloch, a spokesperson for the Foreign Office, announced that Prime Minister Modi has received an invitation to attend the SCO Council of Heads of Government meeting, which Pakistan is hosting from October 15–16 as part of its rotational presidency.
The Indian media last weekend began to speculate about PM Modi’s potential attendance at the SCO conference after hearing that Delhi had been extended an invitation. Media speculation that Mr. Modi will miss this occasion was bolstered by his prior record of missing meetings of the heads of government council, the second-highest forum within the SCO, in favor of sending a ministerial delegate.
The SCO will convene in Pakistan from October 15–16.
The long-standing dispute over Kashmir, accusations of terrorism, and a history of military crises between Islamabad and Delhi all contribute to the sense that Mr. Modi’s participation in person is unlikely.
Moreover, his potential absence would be consistent with India’s larger strategic prudence in handling Pakistan, particularly on venues where Islamabad assumes a major host role.
Even still, India’s membership in the SCO is a careful balancing act between its concern for China’s increasing power inside the organization and its need for regional security cooperation. India is implementing a sophisticated strategy that seeks to counterbalance Chinese dominance while establishing positive ties with Central Asian nations by participating selectively in the SCO’s economic strategies.
But things took an unexpected turn earlier this week when the Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) warned its home media outlets not to speculate about PM Modi’s attendance at the SCO meeting in response to stories in Indian media.
The alert said, “We’ve noticed that a number of sites are reporting that the PM or EAM would not be attending a SCO summit in Pakistan. Note that MEA has not provided a statement on this issue and ask that speculative news in this area be avoided.
Paradoxically, this warning gave rise to fresh rumors rather than putting an end to them.
Both capitals’ diplomatic sources continue to maintain that not only is it exceedingly improbable that Mr. Modi will visit Pakistan, but Delhi is also unlikely to send a prominent official, such as External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, as his envoy. Rather, India’s attendance at the SCO summit will be kept under wraps, raising questions over who would ultimately represent the nation.
India has a well-established policy of not attending meetings in Pakistan, having boycotted the country’s planned hosting of the 19th Saarc Summit in November 2016. Since all of the member nations of the Saarc must be present for a summit to take place, the boycott caused a deadlock that left the regional organization in a position of uncertainty. The SCO, on the other hand, is not subject to this limitation, giving it greater freedom when it comes to scheduling meetings.
In the meantime, Islamabad has consistently demonstrated a willingness to attend conferences that India hosts. Notably, in 2023, former foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari visited India for a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
Similarly, in December 2016, Sartaj Aziz, a former foreign affairs adviser, traveled to Amritsar for the Heart of Asia conference. Furthermore, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif attended the July 4, 2023, virtual hosting of the SCO Council of Heads of State by India, indicating Pakistan’s willingness to join despite the country’s tense bilateral ties with India.
