DUBAI: According to three Gulf sources, Gulf states are pressuring Washington to prevent Israel from striking Iran’s oil sites out of fear that, should the confrontation intensify, Tehran’s proxies might target their own oil facilities.
According to three sources close to government circles, Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar are refusing to allow Israel to fly over their airspace for any attack on Iran in an effort to avoid getting caught in the crossfire. They have also communicated this refusal to Washington.
The Gulf governments’ actions follow Iran’s diplomatic campaign to urge its neighbors to utilize their clout with Washington as worries about Israel attacking Iran’s oil production infrastructure grow.
According to a senior Iranian official and an Iranian diplomat, Iran told Saudi Arabia at meetings this week that it could not ensure the security of the Gulf kingdom’s oil facilities in the event that Israel received any help in launching an attack. According to a Gulf source with insider knowledge of official circles, the Iranian minister’s visit and Saudi-American discussions at the level of the defense ministry are components of a concerted attempt to resolve the problem.
Israel is not permitted to attack Iran via the airspace over Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, or Qatar.
Gulf officials had communicated with their US colleagues to voice concerns on the possible extent of Israel’s anticipated counterattack, according to a person in Washington who was privy to the discussions.
In a call that both parties characterized as constructive, US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed the Israeli retaliation on Wednesday.
The Atlantic Council think-tank in Washington, where Jonathan Panikoff is currently a fellow deputy national intelligence officer for the United States, stated that “Gulf states’ anxiety is likely to be a key talking point with Israeli counterparts in trying to convince Israel to undertake a carefully calibrated response.”
Is oil in danger?
If an Israeli counterattack destroyed some of the nation’s infrastructure, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, or Opec, which is de facto headed by Saudi Arabia, has enough reserve oil capacity to compensate for any loss of Iranian supply. However, a large portion of that spare capacity is located in the Gulf, so if targets were also oil facilities in Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates, for example, there might be an issue with the world’s oil supply. Although relations between Riyadh and Tehran have improved recently, mistrust still exists. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia all house US military installations or personnel.
Another Gulf source claimed that talks between Emirati and US officials revolved around worries over oil facilities and the possibility of a larger regional conflict. Israel is not permitted to use the airspace of the Gulf states.
The Gulf source stated, “They won’t let Israeli missiles pass through, and there’s also a hope that they won’t strike the oil facilities.”
The three Gulf sources emphasized that while Israel might launch strikes via Jordan or Iraq, it was not feasible or strategically advantageous to use Saudi, UAE, or Qatari airspace. Analysts also noted that Israel has additional possibilities, such as the ability to refuel in midair, which would allow its planes to cross the Indian Ocean and Red Sea, fly to the Gulf, and then return.
“Midway through a missile war”
Two high-ranking Israeli officials said that Israel will gauge its response and that, as of Wednesday, it had not determined whether to attack Iran’s oilfields. The officials stated that the defence establishment had given Israeli leaders several options, of which this was one.
On Wednesday, Yoav Gallant, the Israeli Defense Minister, declared, “Our strike will be lethal, precise, and above all — surprising.” They won’t comprehend what took place or how it occurred. They’ll view the outcomes.
According to sources, de-escalating the situation was very important to Saudi Arabia, which is a major oil exporter, as well as its neighboring oil-producing countries. “There will be a missile war going on. A second Gulf source stated, “There is grave anxiety, particularly if the Israeli strike targets Iran’s oil installations.
According to the three Gulf sources, an Israeli attack on Iran’s oil infrastructure would have repercussions for the entire world, especially for China, which is Iran’s largest oil consumer, and for Kamala Harris, who is running against Donald Trump in the November 5 presidential election.
It would be detrimental to the US economy and Harris’s prospects of winning the election if oil prices rose to $120 a barrel. Thus, the first Gulf source stated, “They (Americans) won’t allow the oil war to expand.”
Despite having sophisticated missile and Patriot defense systems, Gulf sources claimed that protecting all oil installations remained difficult. As a result, the key diplomatic strategy was to reassure Iran that the Gulf states do not constitute a threat. Because of its close proximity to the mainland, Riyadh is vulnerable to Iranian attacks, according to Princeton University professor of Near East Studies Bernard Haykel.
