RAWALPINDI: Due to little rainfall, the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has issued a warning that most of the country is experiencing a drought-like situation.
PMD’s National Drought Monitoring Centre (NDMC) said in a statement on Tuesday that the lack of substantial rainfall in the plains made the drought situation worse.
According to the PMD, the warning was an extension of the Drought Advisory-I that was published on December 9.
Between September 1, 2024, and January 15, 2025, Pakistan experienced 40% less rainfall than usual.
The three main anomalies were Punjab (42 percent lower), Balochistan (45 percent lower), and Sindh (52 percent lower) than average rainfall.
Between September 24 and January 15, rainfall was 40% less than usual; El Niño is expected to last until March.
Some parts of the country, particularly rain-fed areas, are experiencing mild drought-like conditions as a result of the decreased rainfall.
The Potohar region of Punjab, which includes Attock, Chakwal, Rawalpindi/Islamabad, Bhakkar, Layyah, Multan, Rajanpur, Bahawalnagar, Bahawalpur, Faisalabad, Sargodha, Khushab, Mianwali, and D.G. Khan, experienced mild drought conditions.
Conditions resembling drought have been observed in Sindh at Ghotki, Jacobabad, Larkana, Shaheed Benazirabad, Dadu, Padidan, Sukkur, Khairpur, Tharparkar, Hyderabad, Thatta, Badin, and Karachi.
Similar circumstances were occurring at Ormara, Kharan, Turbat, Kech, Panjgur, Awaran, Lasbella, Nokkundi, Dalbandin, and the surrounding areas of Balochistan.
The advice said that as no substantial rainfall is anticipated in the rain-fed regions of Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan, the current drought conditions were “likely to aggravate further.”
There is no sign of progress.
The PMD went on to say that since the second half of the season is predicted to be just as dry as the first, things are unlikely to get better.
Particularly in regions of the country that receive rain, the forecasted above-normal temperatures may favor the transition from mild drought conditions to moderate drought.
The advice said that the NDMC is “continuously monitoring the meteorological conditions” and that, due to limited rainfall and rising temperatures, flash drought, a phase of fast drought intensification, is also expected to arise in the coming months. Authorities were advised to take preventative action in regions that are vulnerable to drought.
Report on the season
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other unfavorable climatic indicators are predicted to continue to exist in January, February, and March of 2025, according to the PMD.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States states that ENSO is a climate phenomenon that involves variations in the water temperature in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. In many regions of the world, rainfall is influenced by this cyclical warming and cooling pattern, known as the ENSO cycle.
The Indian Ocean Dipole’s (IOD) shift from “negative to natural phase” is also anticipated to continue throughout the season, the PMD noted.
Due to the dominating western weather systems, the seasonal prognosis predicts normal to slightly above average rainfall in central and southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the majority of Punjab, and the surrounding districts of Azad Kashmir.
Near-normal rainfall is anticipated in upper KP, Hazara, Gilgit-Baltistan, Sindh, and eastern Balochistan. Nonetheless, rainfall in western Balochistan is predicted to be marginally less than usual throughout the season.
According to the PMD, the second half of the season is anticipated to be comparatively dry compared to the first half.
Reservoirs of water
According to the PMD, early in the season, northern regions may get normal to slightly above-average rainfall, which might aid in reservoir replenishment and the maintenance of sufficient water supplies. However, southern Balochistan’s below-normal rainfall may put a strain on the region’s water supplies, influencing the availability of water for home use and irrigation.
In the north, there might be enough water available for irrigation, but careful reservoir level monitoring will be required to guarantee a sufficient supply for the second half of the season, the report stated.
According to the PMD, Islamabad and Rawalpindi may have an early start to the pollen season due to warmer temperatures and lower-than-normal rainfall in the second part of the season.
In the meantime, susceptible populations, especially those in southern regions, may experience the early start of heat stress in March due to above-normal temperatures.